PTA project appraisal from selected technology

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to propose a guideline for management level of The Aromatics (Thailand) Pic. (ATC) to increase a value of main product (para-Xylene) and determine the way to support such excess capacity by producing the Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) which use para-Xylene as a major raw material in the production process. Hence, the scope of research covers all the area of marketing, technical, management, and financial in order to find parameters which have an effect to PTA project by using sensitivity analysis technique as the method. From results of this research shown that such Net Present Worth Value (NPV) of PTA project is about 687 USD Million and such Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is about 20.86% which are rather relatively high in economic crisis period. However, such NPV and IRR of PTA project may be dramatically changed from several parameters which comprises of marketing, technical and management. So, for finding out which parameters that have an effect to PTA project on this research, the researcher use sensitivity analysis technique on the financial model for find out the out come of change in each parameter that has only an effect of Net Present Worth Value (NPV). The aforesaid parameters can be summarized respectively by the highest to the lowest of sensitivity to PTA project by comparing and showing in term of percentage of change with the forecasting data as follows; 1. PTA Price -16% 2. Para-Xylene Price +37.1% 3. Plant Utilization Rate - 46% 4. Capital Investment +80% 5. BOI Privilege for Tax Exemption (no effect) The result from sensitivity analysis has shown that such an effect to PTA project is not occurred from management parameter but it’s only sensitive from marketing and technical parameter. However, considering from the possibility of change in each parameter which are able effect to PTA project, the results show that it’s had less possibility. Due to PTA is continuous product produce from para-Xylene. Fact that, such price of PTA must be always higher than price of para - Xylene. Even though, demand for PTA in Asean region is decreased, PTA can be exported to China or Pakistan which still has more demand to absorb excess capacity of PTA. Therefore, the overall summary of PTA project can be said that it has possibility to operate in commercial run. Due to the parameter that have an effect to PTA project is low sensitivity, even though, the economic in Asean region still decline.